Media Investors banking on recovery

Filed Under Advertising, Digital Signage, digital ooh

I’ve been watching the ad market closely for many, many months now. We all know how depressed the ad business has been and how fearful folks on the brand side can be about pulling the trigger on campaigns this year….”is it time yet?” seems to be a common thread. It’s made this year, to date, frustrating for most to say the least – only in that it’s very difficult to forecast and plan for what’s coming because everything is so last minute.

We’re living in a spot buy economy for media utilization, which has not happened in a long, long time. Large campaigns that usually have some runway to them are being decided on 2, 3 and 4 weeks out.

From what I have seen, the current economic conditions have dramatically accelerated the interest and awareness of Digital OOH – which is a good thing – and the fact that we’re digital means that when a campaign pulls the trigger, we can launch in very short time periods. I’ve seen a few campaigns planned, bought and launched in less than 4 days from initial contact to live.

Since January, my feeling (and granted I’m no economist and an eternal optimist) has been that the ad business will likely start spending again in Digital OOH in healthier quantities in late June – late July with a full run up in September. I don’t think the same effects will happen to the broader ad market but newer, cost effective, efficient, innovative mediums will start to see some movement. Oh…and did I mention we’re Digital?

So it was interesting to see an analyst on Reuters comment on the recent investor run-ups in media stocks. He has a more dire prediction (he’s commenting on the market as a whole and mainly focused on the holding cos and large media owners which make up the vast bulk of total ad spend)

If the recent run-up in media company stocks is any indication, a number of investors believe advertisers are again ready to open their checkbooks for television campaigns, radio spots or a roadside billboard with a 14-foot-tall underwear model.

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Still, experts warn advertising budgets are not yet showing indications of a comeback, after corporations heavily cut spending on everything from print campaigns to Web banners as the recession worsened late last year.

While you’ll always have disagreement between the optimists and the pessimists on what will happen and when, recent movement and activity in Digital OOH ad sales leads me to believe that the purse strings are loosening and that many simply want to “get down to business”. It just so happens that, for the innovative, Digital OOH may benefit faster than some expect

Do investors know something we don’t?